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Friday, September 30, 2005

Parity? ::

No matter the outcome of this weekend's final games of the regular season, for the first time since 2000, no American League team is going to win 100 games. If St. Louis fails to sweep Cincinnati, no National League team will 100 games either. Kansas City will be the only team in either league to lose 100+ games this season as well. The Cardinals currently hold a 10-game lead over Houston in the NL Central, which is the only division where the winner holds a double-digit lead (pending, again, the results of this weekend). Atlanta's total lead over last-place Florida in the NL East is only 10 games. And then there's pitiful NL West, where division champs San Diego have to take 2 of 3 this weekend from the Dodgers just to finish with a winning record. And, I know most people would disagree with me about this, but I think Brewers manager Ned Yost should win NL Manager of the Year. Why is that you say? The Brewers, at 80-79, are one win away from finishing .500, and two wins away from their first winning record since winning 92 games back in 1992. Pending the outcomes of this weekend's games (Milwaukee plays three at last-place Pittsburgh), the Brewers could potentially finish with the fifth-best record in the National League and the eleventh-best record in baseball. That doesn't sound like much, but considering the utter futility of the Brew Crew over the last dozen years, that's actually quite an accomplishment. And considering that in 2006 the Brewers could potentially have Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart for an entire season (that's quite a talented and young infield, where the oldest of them - Hart - would turn the ripe, old age of 24 shortly before the start of next season), along with a healthy pitching trio of Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, and Doug Davis (and don't forget closer Derrick Turnbow), wow... look out for Milwaukee next year.

Monday, September 26, 2005

There's Always Next Year ::

I should begin by apologizing. As you can plainly see, I haven't written here in a month. It started with internet problems here in our apartment, but it was also by this point that Minnesota's hopes of reaching the postseason for the fourth straight season started to completely crumble. All of a sudden, time to update on a daily basis disappeared, and then I wasn't updating at all. As we near the end of the season, updates will be fairly sparse as well. I'll try to keep on top of offseason Twins news - especially player transactions - but I can't guarantee timely and regular updates. Now, as for the Twins of 2005....

We've reached the final week of the season, and the Twins are long since eliminated from postseason play. They finish with a seven-game homestand at the Metrodome, playing four games this week against Kansas City, and then finishing over the weekend with three games against Detroit. Minnesota needs to win four of those seven games against the worst two teams in the division to finish above .500 on the season. It's not going to be easy.

Having seen their postseason hopes disappear, the Twins are a team already thinking about next year. Joe Mays had been moved to the bullpen after pitching horribly in his first season back from elbow surgery, allowing Scott Baker to be called up from Rochester and take a spot in the rotation, but was put back in the rotation temporarily when Brad Radke was rested for the rest of the season. Carlos Silva, who was has been pitching with an injured knee since April, was finally rested for the remainder of the season, his spot in the rotation going to Francisco Liriano. Mays's recall to the rotation may be over already after getting hammered by Chicago over the weekend. Kyle Lohse has an up-and-down season. Lohse - despite his 9-13 record - had his best season as a starter for the Twins. While his strikeout total is down considerably this season (probably owing largely to the elimination of the four-seamer from his pitch selection), his ERA and walks are also down. His little spat with Gardenhire might mean he won't be back next year, but even if he isn't, it's nice to see he made a little improvement this year. And then there's Johan Santana, who continues to pitch like a Cy Young winner. Other names have been thrown around in the American League to win the award this year, but nobody in the league (or, giving Mariano Rivera some credits, no STARTER) has numbers that even come close to those put up by Santana, whether the Twins are in the postseason or not (and, frankly, unlike the MVP, the Cy Young is just about the best pitcher, no matter if his team made the postseason or not). Santana is second in the American League in ERA at 2.98 (Millwood - 2.92), and after the All Star break has far-and-away the lowest ERA at 1.64 (Millwood second at 2.32). He leads the majors in strikeouts at 223, with Randy Johnson second in the AL (and fifth overall) at 201. Opponents are hitting only .212 off him (lowest in the league), and when combined with his 41 walks, he also has the lowest WHIP in the AL at 0.97 (second-best Johnson has 1.14). While his 14 wins are only tied for eighth-best in the American League (leader Bartolo Colon has 20), he is 7-2 since the All Star break. Even more noteworthy is that Santana has 14 wins despite having run support of only 4.67 per game - that's 32nd of 44 qualifying pitchers. Among Cy Young candidates, only Mark Buehrle has gotten less run support at only 4.05 runs per game. It's going to take a lot of explanation from somebody to tell me how Santana doesn't win the Cy Young again this year.

So how does next year's rotation round up? Well, Santana, Radke, and Silva will all be back (and hopefully healthy), leaving two open spots in the rotation. Barring the signing of a top free agent (not likely), there's possibility that those spots could go to Baker and Liriano, although either Lohse or Mays could always be brought back as well. As a team, the Twins have a very good 3.71 ERA to date. Considering what the team has on the current roster and coming up through the ranks in the minors, this looks to be a strong suit again in 2006.

Non-pitchers are another story. While rumors have surfaced of a trade involving Torii Hunter in the offseason, we'll assume for now that those aren't true and look forward simply to his return in 2006. Shannon Stewart, who is being rest for the remainder of 2005, should also be back. Team leader in homeruns Jacque Jones will hopefully be brought back again in 2006, but that's no guarantee. If not, there are several young players in the organization (including Jason Kubel, who missed all of 2005 with a knee injury sustained in spring training), and a replacement will likely come out of one of them. The steadiest position on the team is catcher. Joe Mauer isn't headed anywhere, and if the team is smart, he never will. Backing him up will be Mike Redmond, who leads the team (among batters with at least 100 at-bats) with a solid .311 average. Starter Joe Mauer is second at .300. September call-up Chris Heintz has hit a respectable .278 as well. Where the Twins need to find some stability is in their infield. With the exception of the disappointing Justin Morneau at first, there has been shuffling all season in the infield. Now that the core infield of Koskie, Guzman, Rivas, and Mientkiewicz has been broken up (only Rivas remains, and he's merely a shadow of his former self), the Twins need to find everyday players to fill in. They have too many utility backups and not enough starters. This will surely be the area that Terry Ryan considers the most in the offseason.

So, with seven games left in 2005, the Twins still have a lot to play for, but the fans are really looking forward to 2006, and hopefully we'll have something to cheer for then.


 
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